Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) Q3 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Broadcom delivered record Q3 FY2025 revenue of $15.95B (+22% YoY) and non-GAAP EPS of $1.69, modestly beating Wall Street consensus on revenue and EPS; adjusted EBITDA was $10.70B (67% of revenue) . Results were driven by AI semiconductors ($5.2B, +63% YoY) and VMware-led infrastructure software .
- Management guided Q4 revenue to ~$17.4B (+24% YoY) and adjusted EBITDA to 67% of revenue, with AI semiconductor revenue expected at ~$6.2B (+66% YoY) and infrastructure software at ~$6.7B .
- Mix shift toward XPUs and wireless will compress gross margin ~70 bps sequentially in Q4; Q3 gross margin was 78.4% and operating margin 65.5% .
- Backlog reached ~$110B and a fourth XPU customer placed >$10B of orders, reinforcing 2026 AI growth acceleration; CEO Hock Tan’s tenure extended through at least 2030, signaling continuity in AI strategy .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- AI momentum: AI semiconductor revenue grew to $5.2B (+63% YoY), extending a 10-quarter growth streak; XPUs represented ~65% of AI revenue, with share gains across three customers and a newly qualified fourth customer with >$10B orders for AI racks . “The network is the computer…customers are facing challenges as they scale to clusters beyond 100,000 compute nodes” .
- Software beat: Infrastructure software revenue was $6.8B (+17% YoY), above outlook, supported by strong bookings and VMware Cloud Foundation 9.0 release enabling on‑prem and cloud AI workloads . “We released VMware Cloud Foundation 9.0…enables enterprises to run any application workload, including AI workloads” .
- Strong profitability and FCF: Adjusted EBITDA of $10.7B (67% margin) exceeded guidance; free cash flow reached $7.0B (44% of revenue) .
What Went Wrong
- Non-AI semis sluggish: Non-AI semiconductor revenue was ~$4.0B and “slow to recover,” with enterprise networking and server storage down sequentially; recovery likely U-shaped into mid/late 2026 .
- Margin headwinds: Mix shift to XPUs and wireless (lower margin items) pressured consolidated gross margin sequentially; Q4 guide implies ~70 bps further compression .
- Cyclicality visibility: While bookings are up (>20% YoY) in non-AI semis, management emphasized lack of sustained uptrends outside broadband, limiting near-term conviction on a broad cyclical rebound .
Financial Results
Consolidated Results (oldest → newest)
Segment Breakdown (Revenue and Mix)
AI and Non-AI Semiconductors
Operating KPIs
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “In our fiscal Q3 2025, total revenue was a record $16 billion, up 22% year-on-year…adjusted EBITDA was a record $10.7 billion” .
- “AI semiconductor revenue of $5.2 billion…accelerated to 65% of our AI revenue…we have secured over $10 billion of orders of AI racks based on our XPUs” .
- “We released VMware Cloud Foundation 9.0…enables enterprises to run any application workload, including AI workloads, on virtual machines and on modern containers” .
- “For Q4 2025, we forecast AI semiconductor revenue to be approximately $6.2 billion…we expect Q4 consolidated revenue to approximately $17.4 billion…and adjusted EBITDA to be 67% of revenue” .
- “Gross margin was 78.4%…operating margin increased 20 bps sequentially to 65.5%…free cash flow in the quarter was $7 billion” .
Q&A Highlights
- Fourth XPU customer: Orders >$10B with shipments starting and ending in Q3 FY2026; XPUs expected to gain share at existing customers over multi-generational roadmap .
- Non-AI semis recovery: Year-over-year positive in Q4 but modest; broadband strongest; overall U-shaped recovery expected into mid/late 2026; bookings up ~23% YoY .
- Backlog and mix: Consolidated backlog ~$110B with at least ~50% semiconductors; predominantly AI .
- Mix and margins: Wireless seasonality and XPUs lower margin vs average; consolidated gross margin guide down ~70 bps sequentially .
- Networking roadmap: Jericho 4 enables “scale across” across data centers (~100km) with deep buffering and congestion control; Ethernet positioned to prevail over proprietary protocols .
Estimates Context
- Q3 FY2025 vs S&P Global consensus: Revenue $15.95B vs $15.82B*; EPS $1.69 vs $1.663*; both modest beats. Adjusted EBITDA reported $10.70B vs S&P “EBITDA Consensus Mean” $10.46B*, noting potential definitional differences versus company-adjusted EBITDA . Consensus estimate counts: EPS (34*), Revenue (34*) [GetEstimates].
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Trailing quarters vs consensus:
- Q1: Revenue $14.916B actual vs $14.591B consensus*; EPS $1.60 actual vs $1.508* [GetEstimates].
- Q2: Revenue $15.004B actual vs $14.976B*; EPS $1.58 actual vs $1.571* [GetEstimates].
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Broad-based beat: Revenue and EPS modestly exceeded consensus; adjusted EBITDA achieved 67% of revenue. The beat was powered by AI semiconductors and VMware software mix [GetEstimates].
- AI acceleration into 2026: Fourth XPU customer orders and backlog strength support >60% AI growth trajectory with XPUs gaining mix share vs networking in 2026; narrative remains a powerful catalyst .
- Near-term margin pressure: Higher XPUs and wireless mix will compress gross margin ~70 bps sequentially in Q4; traders should watch margins vs guide and XPUs ramp timing .
- Non-AI semis: U-shaped recovery with broadband leading; limited visibility elsewhere suggests cautious positioning on cyclical rebound headlines .
- Software resilience: VCF 9.0 and >90% adoption in top 10k underline durable ARR and margin support amid AI enablement; cross-sell to advanced services (security, DR, AI) provides medium-term upside .
- Capital allocation discipline: Continued dividends and debt management; opportunistic buybacks possible, but deleveraging prioritized—supports valuation floor .
- Strategy continuity: CEO extension through 2030 reduces execution risk in multi-year AI and VCF roadmaps .
Additional Relevant Press Releases (Q3 FY2025 context)
- Tomahawk 6 shipping: World’s first 102.4 Tbps Ethernet switch; enables unified scale-up/scale-out AI fabrics and supports CPO—ecosystem momentum for large AI clusters .
- Jericho 4 shipping: Fabric router for “scale across” AI clusters across data centers (100km+), deep buffering and MACsec; extends Ethernet leadership .
- VMware/NVIDIA collaboration: Bringing Blackwell GPUs and advanced networking to VCF to scale AI in private clouds (post-Q3, informs trajectory) .
Notes on Non-GAAP Adjustments
- Company-reported non-GAAP results exclude amortization of acquisition-related intangibles, stock-based compensation, restructuring, acquisition costs, tax reconciling adjustments, and other items; adjusted EBITDA excludes additional items as detailed in reconciliation tables .
Cross-References and Discrepancies
- Adjusted EBITDA (company definition) differs from S&P Global “EBITDA Consensus Mean”; investors should compare on a like-for-like basis using company-reported adjusted EBITDA when assessing margins vs guidance [GetEstimates].
- AI networking share: Management notes networking as ~40% of AI revenue in prior quarters but expects mix to decline vs XPUs into 2026—aligns with margin guide headwinds .